Who Needs Home cooking?? HFA doesn't matter anymore

An NFL team goes into a game expecting to win. For most teams, the season goals are as followed:
-Win the Division
- Get a first round bye
-Get the number 1 seed in the conference

For years teams have lived by this model. Conventional wisdom says that it makes sense. Winning your division guarantees a home playoff game. Getting a first round bye means you get a home playoff game and you only have to win two games to get to the Superbowl. Get the one seed in the conference and it means you play those two games at home.

I disagree with conventional wisdom...and apparently the league is starting to agree with me. In fact in the past 13 years there has only been one Superbowl matchup between number one seeds, Superbowl XLIV between the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints. Six of the last seven Superbowl winners have played on wildcard weekend of the playoffs. Two six seeds (Packers in 2010 and Steelers in 2006) have won the Superbowl. The Giants were the number 5 seed when they upset the Patriots in 2007; in fact they won 11 straight games on the road that season. The Ravens had to play at Denver and at New England (top two seeds in the AFC this past season) in order to get to the Superbowl and win it.

What does this trend say about home field advantage? Has it become a myth? I don't think so. There are still stadiums around the league where home field advantage plays a huge factor in the game. The Seattle Seahawks did not lose at game at home last season and their stadium can get so loud that they have been accused of pumping crowd noise through speakers. Arrowhead stadium in Kansas City is always a difficult place for opponents to play, despite how bad the Chiefs have been. The Raiders have been bad for a decade, yet the "Black Hole" is still an intimidating place for opposing teams to visit.

A 17 game season can be broken into 4 sections. Each month is its own mini season. What the home field advantage trend has shown is that teams who enter the post season on a hot streak have a better chance of winning in the playoffs than the teams who rest down the stretch. The Falcons, the NFC's number one seed last year finished 2-2 in the month of December after starting the season 11-1. They barely beat the Seahawks in the divisional round 30-28 and lost the NFC championship game at home to the 49ers. Conversely, the Ravens lost 3 games in a row in late November/ early December, but found their way and ended up finishing the season on a 5-1 hot streak, winning the Superbowl.

Fans don't want to hear it, but cheering in the stands might not have the desired effect that it once had in this league. I still implore you to go to your favorite team's stadium and root your team on...it just doesn't mean they are going to get a check mark in the win column.